Xbox is having quite the week, and not in a good way isn’t it? Someone could probably write a whole book about what’s gone on inside camp Xbox of late. We should all be focused on Hellbade 2 which is out in 2 weeks, yet we are talking about Xbox being in shambles and closing studios. What I want to talk about now though is the need to hit reset on Game Pass before it kills more studios.
Now I have no doubt if you are a consumer that uses Game Pass, you will likely disagree with this article and hate what I’m about to say. But I implore you to at least stick with me til the end and hear me out. Xbox Game Pass needs to hit the reset, and not in a way you will like.
I’ve said it for years, Game Pass is a FANTASTIC thing for consumers. I sub to it and occasionally use it myself. Every Xbox studio game day one. Multiple day one third party releases each year and a constant supply of games. What’s not to love? The problem with it is, it’s simply not sustainable for those day one first party games.
Xbox says Game Pass is profitable and I’m sure it probably is. But it’s not growing, and as games get more expensive to create, without growth those margins will get smaller and smaller. I’ve always said the best way to grow Game Pass is to sell consoles. I know theirs a ton of PC players, but Xbox console owners seem more likely to subscribe. They just don’t seem too interested in selling consoles these days, so that option is out the window.
The alternative in my mind is the option consumers won’t like. Day one exclusives need to end, or at the very least the big ones. While Xbox won’t give us sales figures of their games, it’s pretty hard not to think they aren’t selling great as most would simply play them through Game Pass. If the games were selling amazingly well I don’t think they’d be moving away from even printing physical copies and would at least on occasion mention sales.
When a game costs 10s and even 100s of millions of dollars you need one of two things. You either need a huge influx of new subscribers, or you need a significant amount of sales. It would appear that no new game will do the former, if Starfield isn’t moving the needle not much else will, so Xbox needs to focus on the latter, and the simplest way to do that is stop offering day one exclusives.
Will doing this make Game Pass subscriptions take a nosedive? Maybe. While obviously some will unsubscribe I don’t think it would be a massive dip. Game Pass without day one first party games is still a great deal. The games would still come one year after release into the service for those who are fine waiting and you will still get a lot of great third party games throughout the year.
I just feel like each game being able to stand on its own will help in the long run. Just look at the previously mentioned Hellblade 2. It’s out in 2 weeks and while I cannot wait for it its the type of game that likely won’t move the Game Pass needle to get new subscribers. But because it’s on Game Pass it likely won’t sell many copies either. If it wasn’t a day one game could it go on to sell a couple million copies and at the very least make it’s budget back before going into Game Pass?
And Hellblade 2 is relatively small compared to some of the blockbusters Xbox owns like Halo, Gears, Fallout and others. Those games will(or have) cost hundreds of millions of dollars. Xbox can’t afford to not sell a significant amount of copies when we are talking 200+ million dollar budgets.
What I don’t know is how they would announce this decision. Xbox already has a lot of bad press at the moment and pulling day one games would likely not go over well in the short term. But long term, I think it’s the best decision they could make for the health of their studios. Ultimately consumers want great games more so than they want free games and with how many studios they own, they can certainly deliver a consistent stream of great games.
Game Pass was a hail mary thrown by Xbox during the Xbox One generation. It was a fantastic throw by a great Quarterback, but was dropped in the end zone. Sometimes you just gotta pick up your ball and draw up a new play.
